Cognitive biases

Thinking-bias reference with examples

Reference (8)

Confirmation bias

Seeking only facts supporting your position

→ State what would change your mind

Sunk cost fallacy

'Already invested so much — must see it through'

→ Decide on the future only; the past can't be recovered

Anchoring

First price/number frames the deal ('was 5000')

→ Assess value independent of the first number

Survivorship bias

Studying winners while ignoring thousands of failures

→ Ask: how many did the same and lost?

Dunning-Kruger effect

Beginner confident after a week; expert sees complexity

→ Early confidence ≠ competence

Availability heuristic

Fearing plane crashes, not cars — because of news

→ Check statistics, not the vivid example

Loss aversion

Losing 100 hurts more than gaining 100 feels good

→ Assess risk symmetrically

Bandwagon effect

'Everyone's buying — must be fine'

→ Popularity ≠ correctness

Biases aren't stupidity — they're brain efficiency: heuristics work 95% of the time and fail on the important 5%. Defense isn't 'knowing them all' but having a checklist for big decisions: money, work, relocation. Filter question: 'what would change my mind?'